WN 1195 · SMF → LGB

departs 9:19 AM PT · arrives 10:56 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Arrivals into LGB at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LGB (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1195 · SMF → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?