WN 1204 · LAS → ELP

departs 3:08 PM PT · arrives 5:59 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1204 · LAS → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?