WN 120 · SAN → STS

departs 8:31 AM PT · arrives 10:19 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STS?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.1 mi forecast at STS that day

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into STS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

STS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 120 · SAN → STS

Odds over time

How late will it get to STS?