Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1231
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 1231 · COS → PHX
departs 9:05 PM MT · arrives 9:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 33%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at COS that day
Weather at each end
COS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.