WN 1256 · LGA → MSY

departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 5:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ MSY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1256 · LGA → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?