WN 1280 · PHX → COS

departs 1:41 PM MT · arrives 4:31 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to COS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into COS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

COS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1280 · PHX → COS

Odds over time

How late will it get to COS?