WN 1286 · AUS → HRL

departs 10:16 AM CT · arrives 11:39 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HRL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HRL

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into HRL at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

HRL (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1286 · AUS → HRL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HRL?