WN 1393 · ATL → MSY

departs 4:41 PM ET · arrives 5:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1393 · ATL → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?