WN 1406 · BWI → DEN

departs 4:51 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1406 · BWI → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?