Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1435
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 1435 · SAN → SMF
departs 11:30 AM PT · arrives 1:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 28%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.