WN 1444 · HOU → MDW

departs 5:01 AM CT · arrives 7:40 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from HOU are usually not late

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

MDW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1444 · HOU → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?