WN 1444 · MDW → RDU

departs 8:01 AM CT · arrives 11:06 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ MDW is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.33 in

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1444 · MDW → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?