WN 1473 · SMF → DAL

departs 4:53 AM PT · arrives 10:20 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at DAL that day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into DAL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.00 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1473 · SMF → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?