Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1474 · DEN → AUS
departs 6:35 AM MT · arrives 9:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 8%
Mon 10/5 4%
Fri 10/9 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Other factors
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.