Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1478 · DEN → AUS
departs 2:30 PM MT · arrives 5:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 36%
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.