Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1478 · SLC → DEN
departs 12:20 PM MT · arrives 1:50 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SLC is busy at that time
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.