Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 1495 · DEN → MCO
departs 2:10 PM MT · arrives 8:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.