WN 1498 · MCI → SAT

departs 6:06 PM CT · arrives 8:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 7.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ 6pm departures from MCI are often late

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.67 in

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,133 ft Visibility2 mi Precip4.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1498 · MCI → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?