WN 1523 · HNL → OGG

departs 9:52 AM HT · arrives 10:49 AM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ 9am departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

OGG (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1523 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?