Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1526
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1526 · DEN → DTW
departs 12:20 PM MT · arrives 5:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↑
12pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,240 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.