Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1540
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 1540 · DAL → MCO
departs 10:00 AM CT · arrives 1:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 37%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.86 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.