WN 1565 · MCO → DAL

departs 8:36 PM ET · arrives 10:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±2 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 3.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day

↑ Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip3.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1565 · MCO → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?