Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 156
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 156 · BWI → SDF
departs 10:40 PM ET · arrives 12:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.