WN 1577 · STL → BNA

departs 1:06 PM CT · arrives 2:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at STL that day

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from STL are often late

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,420 ft Visibility4.4 mi Precip0.12 in

BNA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1577 · STL → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?