Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1584
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 1584 · DEN → MCI
departs 8:40 AM MT · arrives 11:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 10%
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 3%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −24 pts in 24h
−24 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −24 pts in 24h
−24 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.