WN 1604 · AUS → JAX

departs 12:31 PM CT · arrives 4:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

JAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1604 · AUS → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?