WN 1641 · AUA → MCO

departs 3:06 PM AST · arrives 6:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1641 · AUA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?