Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1642
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1642 · DEN → MSY
departs 8:00 AM MT · arrives 11:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−30 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −30 pts in 24h
−30 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −24 pts in 24h
−24 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 9% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.