WN 1643 · BWI → MDW

departs 6:56 PM ET · arrives 8:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
36%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.69 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1643 · BWI → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?