WN 1651 · LAS → AUS

departs 7:26 AM PT · arrives 12:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility7 mi Precip1.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1651 · LAS → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?