WN 1678 · MDW → MCO

departs 3:46 PM CT · arrives 7:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1678 · MDW → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?