Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1684
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 1684 · DEN → PHX
departs 9:10 PM MT · arrives 10:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 27%
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.