Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 170 · LAS → SNA
departs 2:30 PM PT · arrives 3:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 36%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.