WN 1717 · SMF → PSP

departs 5:02 PM PT · arrives 6:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PSP?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PSP at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PSP

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PSP (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1717 · SMF → PSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to PSP?