Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1743
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1743 · MSY → DEN
departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 7:25 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 34%
Fri 10/9 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±1 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MSY that day
↑
5pm departures from MSY are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.