WN 1766 · DEN → SDF

departs 1:46 PM MT · arrives 6:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ SDF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1766 · DEN → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?