WN 1766 · SDF → MCO

departs 6:56 PM ET · arrives 9:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MCO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1766 · SDF → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?