Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1782 · LAS → DTW
departs 12:50 PM PT · arrives 7:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Wed 9/30 30%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 32%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.