WN 1786 · MEM → MCO

departs 12:46 PM CT · arrives 3:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1786 · MEM → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?