Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1791
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1791 · ELP → AUS
departs 5:10 AM MT · arrives 7:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 4%
Mon 10/5 3%
Fri 10/9 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.