Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 1809 · TPA → LAS
departs 10:30 AM ET · arrives 12:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.20 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.