WN 1816 · FLL → BWI

departs 7:05 PM ET · arrives 9:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±3 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip2.25 in

BWI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1816 · FLL → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?