Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1823 · ELP → SAN
departs 7:50 PM MT · arrives 8:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 39%
Fri 10/9 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.