WN 1837 · DSM → MDW

departs 5:11 AM CT · arrives 6:38 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ DSM is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.38 in

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1837 · DSM → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?