WN 1838 · DSM → MDW

departs 4:31 PM CT · arrives 5:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MDW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.42 in

MDW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1838 · DSM → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?