WN 1838 · LAS → DSM

departs 11:01 AM PT · arrives 3:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from LAS are often late

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1838 · LAS → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?