WN 1845 · DTW → MDW

departs 8:12 AM ET · arrives 8:34 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ MDW is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,240 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1845 · DTW → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?