WN 1853 · SAT → LAS

departs 11:26 AM CT · arrives 12:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling540 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip3.40 in

LAS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1853 · SAT → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?