Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1865 · SAN → HNL
departs 8:40 AM PT · arrives 11:40 AM HT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 20%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.