Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1869 · FLL → MDW
departs 10:15 AM ET · arrives 12:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±7 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.39 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.92 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.